Hydro-meteorological chain for flood forecasting in the Toce basin: a multi-model comparison    

This study is part of the international MAP-D-PHASE Project, whose main objective is to demonstrate the benefits in forecasting heavy precipitation and related flood events, by coupling atmospheric and hydrological models. The analysis is focused on the River Toce, a middle-size alpine basin, in North-West of Italy. The hydro-meteorological chain includes both probabilistic forecasts based on ensemble prediction systems with lead time of a few days and short-range forecasts based on high resolution deterministic atmospheric models. The hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall-runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano. The observed data to run the control simulations were supplied by ARPA-Piemonte. A re-analysis for two precipitation events, affecting the Toce river basin at half June and at the end of November 2007, is shown.  This study is part of the international MAP-D-PHASE Project, whose main objective is to demonstrate the benefits in forecasting heavy precipitation and related flood events, by coupling atmospheric and hydrological models. The analysis is focused on the River Toce, a middle-size alpine basin, in North-West of Italy. The hydro-meteorological chain includes both probabilistic forecasts based on ensemble prediction systems with lead time of a few days and short-range forecasts based on high resolution deterministic atmospheric models. The hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall-runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano. The observed data to run the control simulations were supplied by ARPA-Piemonte. A re-analysis for two precipitation events, affecting the Toce river basin at half June and at the end of November 2007, is shown.